If election strategy is drawn on the basis of the survey reports, there is every chance to taste defeat in the elections.
1.When a survey is made for opinion of ‘who will win’ or who they want to elect, the result depends on the persons questioned and it has every chance to make the surveying people err when they come to a conclusion based on those selections. If people from different walks of life and of different age groups are questioned methodically it may give nearer account.
2. There is a test for it. If the difference between the winner and the runner up as the survey is very marginal, then it cannot be relied upon. If the difference is considerably wide, then it can be relied upon.
3. Another problem with the poll surveys is that a sample of 1000 to 3000 persons are questioned out of the total voters of two lakhs in a constituency. It may yield the desired results but not accurate results.
4. Many times the candidates desirous of getting party ticket may influence and resort to rigging of the survey results.
Telugu Desam Party President Chandrababu Naidu recently announced selecting the candidates for contesting in the general elections 2014 through IVR which he claims is done for the first time in the country. A new thing is welcome but the survey may give the following errors.
1.Always apples are to be compared only with apples but not with other things. It is a known fact that TDP is in the second place but not in a winning state in many constituencies in the state. That means those candidates are also in the second place.
2. With such a background when a survey is conducted who will be vote by them? The TDP cadre naturally! The selected candidates again stand second runner up but will not be with winning chances. So with standing at second place, how can TDP come into power is something TDP chief should realize.
3. Presently none of the winning candidates are in TDP and are expected to join the party soon. So the fight would be between the outsiders and insiders. Among them, TDP insiders will win as the survey on outsiders, TDP won't prefer. On the whole, TDP may again sit in the opposition.
Coming to YSRCP, they have been conscious about their survey right away and more they are contesting for the first time in general elections. Accordingly their surveys are pre-planned and sought a firm report on their candidates. Also YS Jagan doesn't hesistate to remove leaders who don't have the ability to win the elections and makers sure they won't work against the party and leave the party.
TDP should take some bold steps if they are really looking to form government in both the regions. They should talk with the unhappy and assure them a big role in future. None of these steps were taken earlier and hence they had to settle down in the opposition in the previous two editions.
Conclusion: Any party which selects candidates without any background survey will definitely pay the price in elections. In addition to this, polls come once in five years and by the time, new polls arrive, leaders will turn old and party may ask for young and popular leaders.
Winning is the most important thing than counting the number of votes, Congress has noticed this long back and YSRCP is currently following this. TDP should also get used to this rather than looking for strong vote bank. TDP should also pick candidates regardless of caste and religion, then definitely it would form government with a clear majority.
[AW: SriJa, Vamshi]
