Being out of power for two terms, Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] is desperate to get back its lost glory this time. Naming Narendra Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate, winning the elections in four states have boosted the confidence of BJP while the Congress is worried.
One thing all the political analysts noticed is that, the party which bags major seats in Southern India get the opportunity get form government in the national capital and especailly, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are very crucial ones. This was successfully proved in the three consecutive general electons 1999, 2004 and 2009.
In 1999 elections, BJP alliance with Telugu Desam Party [TDP] have won 36 seats out of 42 while in Tamil Nadu, BJP and DMK along with group of smaller parties like PMK, MDMK, and MADMK won 26 of the state's 39 seats. BJP led NDA formed a strong government then. In 2004, Congress formed ally with Telangana Rashtra Samithi [TRS] and won 34 seats. In TN, DMK and smaller parties opted for Congress and swept all the 39 seats. BJP faced a humiliating defeat. In 2009, Congress single handedly won 36 seats, while in TN, BJP faced the same result. So on the whole, winning in AP and TN is life death issue for National parties.
Coming to the Andhra Pradesh, the political scenario completely changed with the bifurcation. Congress party lost its glory in Seemandhra region and pinned hopes on the Telangana region. As TRS Chief KCR gave a major blow by not merging his party with Congress, winning here is going to be tough for it. TDP is completely washed in Telangana region with supremo Chandrababu Naidu's double stand. Meanwhile, BJP seems to be recollecting their faith as they unconditionally extended their support to the Telangana Bill in Parliament. Currently, the Telangana people are preferring Assembly vote to TRS and Parliament vote to BJP.
On the other hand in Seemandhra region, TDP popularity is increasing day by day. Though Hyderabad development factor failed in Telangana region, it got clicked in Seemandhra region with Chandrababu assuring to develop Seemandhra as Singapore, TDP is growing stronger every passing day. As the state will be two after the elections, TDP is expected to take support of BJP in Seemandhra region while it is vice versa in Telangana region. If BJP and TDP form ally in Telangana, BJP would gain a lot and Seemandhra TDP will be on the receiving end.
Then from the past two weeks, politics went very interesting with Pawan Kalyan making his re-entry and Lok Satta coming forward to support BJP, TDP and Pawan's Jana Sena party. However, the seats adjustment has been the center of discussion for the ally. BJP which has less prominent leaders in both regions is willing rope them with the Modi factor waving. In the initial discussions of alliance, BJP asked for 50 Assembly seats and 10 Parliament seats in Telangana and this has stunned the TDP. BJP was also upset with Chandrababu for announcing a backward candidate as Telangana chief minister. Following the same equation, BJP demanded for approx 70 Assembly seats and 15 MP in Seemandhra region which made TDP to re-think again.
With TRS in Telangana and YSR Congress, ex-cm Kiran's Jai Samaikyandhra Party, there is strong threat for BJP as well as TDP. Contesting on selected seats with a success mantra should be the focus of BJP and TDP to form government at national and state level respectively.
Overall BJP chances are quite high to break the UPA rule.